According to a report by Topline Pakistan Research, Pakistan’s urea sales have reached a staggering low, with January 2026 figures showing just 218,000 tons sold, marking an 84% month-on-month drop and a 51% year-on-year decrease. This steep decline follows an unprecedented surge in December 2025, when sales reached an all-time high of 1.36 million tons amid significant manufacturer discounts.

According to a recent report by Topline Pakistan Research, the drop in sales is largely attributed to a rollback of discounts offered by key manufacturers. Engro Fertilisers (EFERT) reduced its promotions to Rs100-150 per bag from Rs400 in the previous month, while Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) eliminated discounts after previously offering Rs150-200 per bag in December.

January’s closing urea inventory is expected to be around 630,000 tons, a notable increase from 320,000 tons in December 2025. This inventory rise indicates normalisation after the exceptional December sales period, with a tapering of seasonal demand and steady production rates contributing to the build-up.

Company-specific forecasts indicate that EFERT may experience a drastic decline in urea sales, to just 24,000 tons in January—down 96% month-on-month and 77% year-on-year. In comparison, FFC’s sales are expected to hit 175,000 tons (down 54% MoM, 10% YoY), while Fatima Group (FATIMA) anticipates sales of only 7,000 tons, reflecting a staggering decrease of 97% MoM and 93% YoY.

Additionally, Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) sales are projected to be around 34,000 tons for January 2026, a decrease of 58% from the previous month and 45% compared to the same period last year. FFC and EFERT are expected to record DAP sales of 20,000 tons and 11,000 tons, respectively.

Looking ahead, industry experts forecast that urea sales will stabilise throughout 2026 as seasonal demand normalises and the aggressive discount-driven sales tactics subside.