• We expect the SBP to maintain the status quo in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, given the recent escalation in regional tensions and the surge in oil prices.
• The aggressive stance from both Iran and Israel, along with Trump’s warning to Iran, has added more uncertainty to the duration of tension.
• We believe the announced budget to be non-inflationary due to a lack of aggressive revenue measures.
• A de-escalation of regional tensions, along with improving external inflows and macroeconomic conditions, would allow the central bank to cut rates to single digits in CY25, in our view.

Courtesy –   AKD  Research