AHCML Research has published a preview report on Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) for the expected fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025 (4QFY25).

Pioneer Cement Limited is anticipated to report a profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 1,167 million, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 5.13 for this quarter. This represents a 13% decrease year-over-year (YoY). Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 8,305 million, reflecting a 2% increase YoY, primarily due to rising retention prices. However, gross margins are estimated to be 29.08%, down by 6.3 percentage points (ppt) YoY, which is attributed to a 6% royalty charge on the ex-factory cement price.

In June 2025, the average retail price of a 50kg cement bag increased by 11.62% YoY, rising to PKR 1,412 from PKR 1,265 in June 2024. Coal prices averaged USD 89.57 per ton in 4QFY25, showing a decline of 6.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) from USD 95.56 per ton in 3QFY25 and a decrease of 16.8% YoY from USD 107.70 per ton in 4QFY24.

The average discount rate was 11% in 4QFY25, down from 20.5% in 4QFY24 and 12% in 3QFY25. This indicates a significant decrease of 9.5 ppt YoY and 1 ppt QoQ, resulting in finance costs expected to drop by approximately 45.3%.

We estimate a dividend per share (DPS) of PKR 9.28 for the period. Local dispatches totaled 530,406 tons in 4QFY25, representing a slight decline of 0.83% YoY compared to 534,853 tons in 4QFY24. However, on a QoQ basis, dispatches increased by about 1.4%, up from 523,046 tons in 3QFY25.