Hub Power Company Limited is set to announce its 4QFY26 and FY26 financial results shortly. We expect HUBC to report 4QFY26 EPS of PKR 9.27, up 2.3% YoY and 11.3% QoQ, while announcing an interim cash dividend of PKR 5.00/share. For FY26, we estimate the company will post EPS of PKR 34.76, accompanied by a cumulative cash dividend of PKR 20.00 per share.
The anticipated improvement in quarterly earnings is primarily driven by stronger operating performance across HUBC’s generation portfolio, reflecting higher plant dispatch amid elevated summer demand and temporary disruptions in RLNG-based generation, which resulted in greater reliance on thermal power plants.
Higher Generation and Lower Costs to Support 4QFY26 Profitability
- During the quarter, CPHGC recorded a plant utilization of 26%, compared to 5% in the same period last year.
- Similarly, TEL and TNPTL are expected to post utilization levels of 83% and 79%, respectively, versus 75% and 72% in the corresponding period last year.
- LEL also witnessed a notable recovery, with utilization increasing to 75% from 52% a year ago, supported by improved water flows and stronger seasonal demand.
- Meanwhile, the Hub Narowal Plant operated at 17% utilization, compared to only 3% in the same quarter last year, benefiting from higher thermal generation requirements.
- Beyond the improvement in operating performance, earnings are expected to be supported by a sharp decline in the tax charge. We estimate taxation to fall 59.4% QoQ, primarily due to a lower effective tax rate, as the company had already recognized the impact of super tax during 3QFY26. In addition, finance costs are projected to decline 27.0% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, reflecting the prevailing lower-interest-rate environment and a reduction in long-term borrowings, thereby providing further support to the bottom line.
- The share of profit from associates is expected to remain largely stable, increasing by 2.8% YoY and 2.2% QoQ.
- Meanwhile, we estimate BYD Pakistan to sell approximately 2,000 vehicles during the quarter, translating into an earnings contribution of PKR 401mn.
Courtesy: AL Habib Capital Markets Pvt Ltd.
