The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC) is expected to announce its 4QFY26 results shortly, with PAT projected at PKR 11.7bn, broadly flat YoY. On a QoQ basis, earnings are expected to improve, driven by a 15% increase in gross profit, primarily due to a higher period-weighting factor for LEL, along with a lower effective tax rate, as super tax obligations were largely recognized in the previous quarter.
We expect HUBC to announce a 4QFY26 dividend of PKR 5.0/share, taking the full-year payout to PKR 20.0/share. The payout is expected to be supported by strong dividend inflows from its CPEC IPPs and LEL (we estimate PKR 1.8bn in 4QFY26). In addition, there remains significant dividend distribution potential from CPHGC and TNPTL. During FY26, both companies paid approximately PKR 41bn to HPHL, of which only PKR 11.6bn has been upstreamed to HUBC. With the majority of the BYD investment now completed, we expect higher upstream dividends to support future shareholder payouts.
In addition, NEL’s utilization is expected to improve to 17% in 4QFY26, compared with 3% in 4QFY25, while CPHGC is also projected to operate at a slightly higher utilization of ~29% versus historical levels, due to RLNG supply disruptions and summer demand. Meanwhile, TEL and TNPTL are expected to maintain robust utilization of 83% and 79%, respectively, while LEL is likely to witness a significant increase to 75%, (52% in the same period last year).
BYD’s USD 150mn (PKR 42bn) CKD assembly plant in Gharo is in its final stages, with equipment installation and commissioning underway. HUBC’s 50% stake implies an equity commitment of ~USD 30mn (PKR 8.5bn), of which PKR 6.6bn had been invested as of Mar’26. The 25,000-unit annual capacity plant is expected to commence operations in 2HCY26, with CKD launches planned across multiple vehicle segments. Meanwhile, MMC recently received its largest shipment of over 2,000 BYD vehicles, while BYD and HUBCO Green continue expanding Pakistan’s EV charging infrastructure, with the Karachi–Peshawar corridor already covering around 1,300 km through 19 DC fast chargers and targeting 40–50 charging stations nationwide by end-2026.
