Pakistan’s petroleum sales declined in June 2026, with volumes reaching 1.26 million tons, a 20% year-over-year (YoY) decline. However, on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, sales by oil marketing companies (OMCs) rose by 7%. Excluding furnace oil (FO), OMC volumes fell 15% YoY but rose 6% from the previous month.

The YoY decline was primarily attributed to higher retail prices for motor spirit (MS) and high-speed diesel (HSD), with HSD showing a steeper decline. This decrease was likely exacerbated by a resurgence in cross-border smuggling, particularly amid elevated domestic prices.

For the fiscal year 2026, total OMC sales amounted to 16.2 million tons, remaining relatively flat YoY. Growth experienced during most of the year was counterbalanced by weaker demand in the final quarter due to the onset of the US-Iran conflict.

In June 2026, HSD volumes totaled 0.5 million tons, marking a 20% YoY decline, primarily due to high fuel prices and increased HSD smuggling. MS volumes also declined 11% YoY, driven by the same factors.

FO sales experienced a dramatic 68% YoY decline, which we attribute to increased hydropower generation.

On a MoM basis, OMC volumes increased 7% to 1.26 million tons, driven by lower petroleum prices resulting from easing geopolitical tensions and falling global oil prices. MS offtake rose by 5% to 0.65 million tons, while HSD sales increased by 9% MoM to 0.50 million tons. Meanwhile, FO sales surged 41% MoM, driven by higher power demand during the summer season.

Source: AHL Research