IMS Research has released a report on the Pakistan Fertilisers industry, noting that CY25 urea offtake is inflated to 6.7mn MT due to aggressive year-end discounts, pulling demand from CY26. CY26 estimates are cut by 5% to 6.3mn MT. FFC is favored for its cost advantage and strong balance sheet (net cash of PKR110bn), while EFERT faces liquidity risks.

Urea sales in CY25 rose 2% YoY, driven by discounts, but elevated inventories and weaker demand may impact stocks (projected at c.594K MT by Dec-2026). Disruptions in the Middle East open up potential urea export opportunities for Pakistan.

The government’s GIDC amendment could recover c.PKR400bn in arrears, benefiting FFC the most due to its strong cash position, while EFERT might struggle with payouts amid tighter liquidity.