- Inflation for April 2026 is projected to stay at 10.3% YoY, compared to 7.3% YoY in March 2026 and 0.30% YoY in the same period last year.
- On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to rise by 1.94% MoM. Headline inflation is anticipated to rise, primarily driven by higher fuel prices due to the Iran-USA war and higher electricity prices.
- The electricity index shows a moderate 0.6% growth, primarily driven by a lower FCA than the previous month. The FCA approved for Apr’26 stands at 1.42/kWh, down from 1.63/kWh in Mar’26, while the QTA remained unchanged for both months.
- The Transport Index is expected to rise by 17.60% MoM due to higher Petroleum Product prices.
Average Petrol Retail Prices stood at PKR369.54/ltr, which is up 19.1% MoM, and average Diesel Prices stood at PKR403.18/ltr, which is up 24.1%. - Moreover, food inflation is also projected to increase by 0.4% MoM, due to upward adjustments in the prices of tomatoes, onions, and chicken. Meanwhile, the decline in wheat prices is expected to anchor the pace of food inflation.
- The massive rise in energy prices remains the major threat to higher inflation.
Courtesy – AHCML Research
