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FFC will achieve Shariah compliance by the end of 2025

Topline Pakistan Research has provided insights from the Corporate Briefing Session of Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) held today. Here are the key takeaways:

– FFC management discussed the company’s financial performance and future outlook during the briefing. They anticipate that FFC will achieve Shariah compliance by the end of 2025, with most funds already converted from conventional to Islamic in June 2025. However, they highlighted that Askari Bank presents a challenge, aiming to convert 30% of its branches to Islamic banking by year-end, with plans for full conversion by 2027.

– Management expects the industry’s urea inventory to stabilize around 1.3 million tons by December 2025.

– There are currently no discussions with the government regarding urea exports.

– Regarding the potential acquisition of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), management indicated that it is still in the due diligence phase, and it is premature to confirm whether they will proceed or disclose any potential funding sources.

– FFC reported dividend income of PKR 9 billion from its energy businesses, PKR 7 billion from PMP, and additional interest income from cash and cash equivalents in 2Q2025.

– The company did not offer discounts on urea in 1Q2025, while only nominal discounts were provided in 2Q2025.

– As of June 2025, FFC’s inventory level stood at 338,000 tons of urea and 134,000 tons of DAP, compared to industry inventories of 1,310,000 tons of urea and 336,000 tons of DAP, respectively.

– FFC’s market share for urea and DAP declined from 52% to 48% and from 71% to 64%, respectively, in 1H2025.

– Phos Acid is currently trading at USD 1,250 per metric ton.

– The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is 16%/84% as of June 2025, compared to 19%/81% in December 2024.

– It is noteworthy that FFC announced its highest ever unconsolidated quarterly profit of PKR 25.2 billion (EPS: PKR 17.7), a 62% increase year-over-year (YoY) and a 90% increase quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). This brings 1H2025 earnings to PKR 38.5 billion (EPS: PKR 27.02), up 47% YoY. Along with the results, the company declared a second interim cash dividend of PKR 12 per share, making the total cash dividend for 1H2025 PKR 19 per share (payout ratio: 70%).

We maintain a buy recommendation on FFC, with the stock currently trading at a 2025 estimated P/E ratio of 8.4x and a dividend yield of 9%.

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