PSX: CY24 elections, unforeseen results loosening the confidence

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 ·         PTI-backed independents won the most seats in Pakistan’s 2024 elections, defying expectations and leading to a hung parliament. Coalition talks are ongoing, but the future government structure remains uncertain.

·         According to the provisional results released by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), out of total of 264 seats, PTI-backed candidates have secured 92 national seats, followed by PML-N with 81 seats (including 6 independent candidates joining the party), and PPP garnered 54 seats.

·         The new government faces significant economic hurdles, including multi-year high inflation and interest rate levels (FY24E CPI/Current policy rate: 25.8%/22%, respectively), and foreign exchange reserves at US$8.04bn, compared to mounting external debt requirements, standing at US$24.5bn in FY24.

·         The hung parliament shattered investors confidence, leading to >3k pts decline in benchmark index on first two trading days post-election.

·         Despite attractive valuations, investor sentiment hinges on the new government’s initial actions, especially towards the IMF and economic reforms. A cautious approach is advised until clarity.

 Courtesy – AKD Research

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