Power Generation down by 11% YoY during Oct’23

• Power generation decreased by 10.6% YoY to 9,572 GWh (12,866 MW) during Oct’23, compared to 10,705 GWh (14,388 MW) during Oct’22. On MoM basis, generation also decreased by 28.2%. During 4MFY24, power generation increased by 3.7% YoY to 53,710 GWh (18,195 MW) compared to 51,786 GWh (17,543 MW) during 4MFY23.
• Power generation during Oct’23 (including T&D losses) remained 17.1% lower (8,189 GWh, 11,007 MW) than the reference generation (9,879 GWh, 13,278 MW). The decline in generation will increase the capacity charges for 2QFY24 QTA. 
• Major contributors during Oct’23 were Hydel (share: 32.5%), RLNG (share: 20.3%), Nuclear (share: 19.1%), Local Coal (share: 13.9%), Gas (share: 7.4%), Imported Coal (3.5%), Wind (share: 2.0%), Solar (share: 0.8%), and Bagasse (share: 0.3%). The FO-based generation during Oct’23 remained at almost zero.
• The load factor of CPHGC remained zero during Oct’23 compared to 31% during Oct’22. We view that the plant dispatched no electricity because of lower demand from power purchasers. The overall load factor of imported coal-based power plants remained at 10% during the month compared to 34% during the same period last year. The load factor of TEL and TNPL remained at 36% and 81% during Oct’23, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants remained at 68%.
• The hydel-based generation decreased by 1% YoY to 3,114 GWh during Oct’23. The downturn in the generation has been witnessed due to a 21% YoY decline in generation from Terbela’s 4th extension and a 4% decline in generation from WAPDA. However, the resumption of Neelam Jhelum cautioned/ the overall decline.

The cost of Power Generation decreased by 8.4% YoY during Oct’23

• The cost of power generation decreased by 8.4% YoY to PKR 8.26/KWh during Oct’23 while including transmission losses and previous adjustments, it has witnessed at PKR 11.43/KWh. On this basis, there is a projected rise of PKR 3.53/KWh in fuel charge adjustment, which will be charged from customers with the Dec’23 bills. The YoY decline was witnessed during Oct’23, which was led by the following reasons;
• Imported coal-based cost of generation decreased by 37% YoY.  The decline in cost is witnessed due to a 34% YoY decline in coal prices.
• RLNG-based generation cost also declined by 2% YoY to PKR 23.70/KWh.

 Courtesy – AHL Research