Pakistan recorded monthly OMC sales of 1.06mn tons, down significantly by 31% YoY and 25% MoM in Sep 2023, the lowest level since COVID lockdown in March 2020. This decline was primarily attributed to record-high prices, smuggled oil from Iran, and lower FO-based power generation.

Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales clocked in at 0.97mn tons in Sep 23, down 20% YoY & 24% MoM.

1QFY24 oil sales clock at 3.8mn tones fall 15% YoY. EX-FO, Oil sales fell 1% YoY to 3.5mn tons.

High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales saw lowest sales since Covid lockdown in March 2020, reaching 394K tons in Sep-23. Sales were down 24% YoY and 28% MoM due to increasing prices of diesel. HSD prices rose 12% from Rs293/litre in Aug-23 to Rs330/litre in Sep-23.

MS sales have also declined 18% YoY and 23% MoM to 518k tons in Sep-2023, lowest since March 2020. This is also due to the big increase in petrol prices resulting in lowered demand. Petrol prices rose by 14% from Rs290/litre in Aug-23 to Rs331/litre in Sep-23.

FO sales for Sep 2023 fell 72% YoY and 28% MoM to 84k tons due to lower FO based power generation.

Among listed entities, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales for Sep 2023 declined by 37% YoY and 30% MoM to 510k tons. This was primarily due to overall lowered sales in all sections, but FO was the major reason with a 94% fall YoY and 61% fall MoM.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) sales declined by 30% YoY and 18% MoM to 80K tons. Similarly, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales also declined by 13% YoY and 18% MoM to 123K tons.

We believe the recent decline in petrol and diesel prices along with tight security over borders will improve next month oil sales.

Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research