Pakistan OMC’s sales fell to 1.1mn tons, the lowest in 6 months. Diesel sales slightly improved by 1% MoM basis due to the harvesting season. Pakistan Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.11mn tons, the lowest in six months, down 6% YoY and 4% MoM in Apr-2024. Ex-furnace oil (FO) sales were down 2% Year over Year and 3% Month over Month in April 2024. This was mainly due to higher petrol and diesel prices and smuggling.
As per media, around 10mn litres of Iranian oil are being smuggled every day.
FO sales for Apr-2024 fell by 59% YoY and 33% MoM to 30K tons. This decrease is attributed to lower power generation from FO-based power plants.
MS sales were down 9% YoY and 7% MoM to 530K tons, while HSD sales increased by 2% YoY and 1% MoM to 469K tons in Apr-2024.
Diesel sales slightly improved on a Month-on-Month basis by 1% despite Eid Holidays, as the harvesting season began in April 2024.
Average petrol prices were at Rs291.68/litre in Apr-2024, up 4% MoM and 5% YoY. Similarly, Diesel prices fell for the first half of the month while averaging at Rs286.31/litre for Apr 2024, a 1% MoM rise and 2% YoY fall.
Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked in at 99K tons, a 18% YoY and 4% MoM decline in Apr-2024. FO sales fell by 78% YoY and 49% MoM which mainly contributed to fall of APL sales.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a fall of 3% YoY and 6% MoM rise to 559K tons in Apr-2024. FO saw a significant 22% YoY and 23% MoM fall in Apr-2024. PSO’s market share increased from 49% in Apr-2023 to 51% in Apr-2024.
Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 7% YoY and a 14% MoM fall to 81K tons. HSD sales down 3% YoY and 13% MoM while MS sales down 12% YoY and 15% MoM in Apr-2024.
In 10MFY24 OMC’s recorded total sales of 12.44mn tons, down 11% and Ex-FO sales down by 4% YoY to 11.6mn tons as compared to 12.1mn tons in 10MFY23.
For FY24, we anticipate that total EX-FO sales will remain under pressure due to the smuggling of oil from Iran due to higher local prices. However, going forward, the outlook can improve if the right measures are taken to combat smuggling.
Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research