Pakistan OMC’s recorded sales of 1.3mn tons, up 19% MoM and Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales up 24% MoM in Oct-2023. The MoM jump in sales is due to low base of the previous month amid higher prices and consumers were waiting in anticipation of a decline in prices to fuel up their tanks.

Average Petrol price of Oct 2023 came down to Rs303/lit compared to Rs318/lit in Sep-2023. Similarly average Diesel prices came down to Rs311/lit in Oct-2023 from Rs321/lit in Sep-2023.

On YoY basis, in Oct-2023 total OMC’s sales down 24% YoY while Ex-FO sales down 17% YoY. The YoY fall in sales is due to higher fuel prices and economic slowdown.

FO sales for Oct 2023 fell by 74% YoY and 37% MoM to 54K tons due to lower FO based power generation.

This takes 4MFY24 total sales to 5.1mn tons, down 17% YoY while Ex-FO sales down by just 6% YoY to 4.7mn tons in 4MFY24.

To highlight, average Petrol prices in 4MFY24 clocked in at Rs290/lit up 25% YoY and average Diesel prices up 19% YoY to Rs293/lit in 4MFY24.

Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked at 124K tons, a 10% decline YoY and a 1% increase MoM. FO sales fell by 53% YoY and 39% MoM due to reasons mentioned above.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a fall of 26% YoY while up 23% MoM to 628K tons. FO sales down 95% YoY and 55% MoM. PSO total market share stands at 50% in Oct-2023 compared to 51% in Oct-2022 and 48% in Sep-2023.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 30% fall YoY and a 12% MoM rise to 90K tons. HSD saw a 36% fall YoY and 28% rise MoM, which majorly contributed to the company sales.

For FY24, we anticipate a potential recovery in Ex-FO OMC sales, estimated to increase by up to 5%. This is primarily attributed to a pickup in economic activity, where interest rates are expected to decline in the latter half of FY24, coupled with a favorable agricultural crop this year.

Courtesy- Topline Pakistan Research