Pakistan Economy_Jan’24 CPI expecting headline inflation of 28.6%YoY

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· Headline CPI inflation is expected to clock in at 28.63%YoY/1.83%MoM for Jan’24, compared to the 29.66%YoY/0.82%MoM reported in the earlier month— marking another monthly increase in part due to higher electricity prices and persistent elevation in food prices.

· As per news reports, prices of chickens, eggs and tomatoes have escalated majorly due to the non-enforcement of official price lists, resulting in unchecked escalation during the winter months.

· While near-term risks on currency stability and the potential for new taxation measures to meet fiscal targets may have subsided, we still expect inflation to average 22.27% during 2HFY24, ending the full-year average at 25.53%.

· Further adjustments in energy and food prices (high demand periods in April ’24) will keep upcoming inflation readings critical and will be key in shaping the future direction of monetary policy.

Courtesy – AKD Research

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