Pakistan OMC’s recorded sales of 1.4mn tons up 9% MoM while Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales up 7% MoM in Nov-2023. The MoM jump in sales is due to lower Petrol & Diesel prices and low base of FO sales in last month.

Average Petrol price of Nov 2023 came down to Rs282/lit compared to Rs303/lit in Oct-2023. Similarly average Diesel prices came down to Rs300/lit in Nov-2023 from Rs311/lit in Oct-2023.

FO sales for Nov 2023 rose 54% MoM to 82K tons. This rise is due to the shortage of RLNG/Gas and reduced hydel power generation in winter months, leading in a switch to FO based power generation, we believe.

On YoY basis, in Nov-2023 total OMC’s sales down 11% YoY and Ex-FO sales down 8% YoY. The YoY fall in sales is due to higher fuel prices and economic slowdown.

This takes 5MFY24 total sales to 6.5mn tons, down 16% YoY while Ex-FO sales down by 6% YoY as compared to 7.7mn tons in 5MFY23.

To highlight, average Petrol prices in 5MFY24 clocked in at Rs289/lit up 25% YoY and average Diesel prices up 21% YoY to Rs295/lit in 5MFY24.

Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked in at 121K tons, a 9% decline YoY and a 2% decline MoM in Nov 2023. FO sales fell by 43% YoY which mainly contributed to fall of APL sales.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a fall of 12% YoY and a 14% MoM rise to 715K tons in Nov 2023. FO saw a 43% YoY fall and 337% MoM rise, contributing greatly to the overall PSO sales.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 19% fall YoY and a 3% MoM rise to 93K tons. HSD sales up 7% MoM and MS sales up 1% MoM in Nov-2023.

For FY24, we anticipate a potential recovery in Ex-FO OMC sales, estimated to increase by up to 5%. This is primarily attributed to a pickup in economic activity, where interest rates are expected to decline in the latter half of FY24, coupled with a favorable agricultural crop this year.

Courtesy – Topline Pakistan Research