Power generation increased by 13.6% YoY to 15,959 GWh (21,451 MW) during Aug’23, compared to 14,053 GWh (18,888 MW) during Aug’22. On MoM basis, generation also increased by 7.5%. Due to this 2MFY24 power generation was up by 9.2% YoY to 30,799 GWh (20,698 MW) compared to 28,203 GWh (18,954 MW) during 2MFY23. The rise in power generation during 2MFY24 is triggered by the overall rise in economic activity across the country we view.

Power generation during Aug’23 (including transmission losses) remained 7.4% higher at 15,472 GWh (20,796 MW) than the reference generation of 14,406 GWh (19,363 MW). The difference between the actual and reference generation will result in a tariff decrease in terms of Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA).

Major contributors during Aug’23 were Hydel (share: 37.6%), RLNG (share: 17.2%), Nuclear (share: 12.8%), Local Coal (share: 10.3%), Gas (share: 7.6%), Wind (share: 5.0%), Imported Coal (4.5%), FO (share: 4.1%), Solar (share: 0.5%), and Bagasse (share: 0.2%).

CPHGC’s Load Factor remained at 16% during Aug’23 compared to 30% during Aug’22. The load factor of the plant remained low because of lower demand from power purchaser, we view. The overall load factor of imported coal-based power plants remained at 21% compared with 52% during the same month last month. The load factor of TEL and TNPL remained at 88% and 82% during Aug’23, respectively, and the overall load factor of local coal-based plants remained at 83%.

The total hydel-based generation increased by 12% YoY and reached an all-time high of 6,005 GWh during Aug’23. The rise in hydel-based generation has been witnessed due to the resumption of Neelam Jhelum during Aug’23. The plant was unavailable for generation since Jul’22 due to technical issues.

Cost of Power Generation decreased by 17.8% YoY during Aug’23

The cost of power generation decreased by 17.8% YoY to PKR 8.27/KWh (PKR 8.47/KWh including transmission losses) during Aug’23, but still higher than the reference cost of PKR 6.65/KWh. On this basis, there is a projected rise of PKR 1.83/KWh in fuel charge adjustments in the forthcoming months. YoY decline was witnessed during Aug’23 which was led by the following reasons;

Local and imported coal-based cost of generation decreased by 48% YoY, and 8% YoY, respectively. The decline in imported coal-based is witnessed due to a 54% YoY decline in international coal prices.

FO-based cost of generation decreased by 6% YoY.

RLNG-based cost of generation also decreased by 6% YoY to PKR 23.71/KWh due to 2% YoY decline in RLNG prices to PKR 3,675/mmbtu.

Hydel, Nuclear, Wind, and solar-based generation increased by 12% YoY, 9% YoY, 106% YoY, and 14%, respectively.

Courtesy – AHL Research