Pakistan’s Urea sales in Nov-2023 are expected to clock in at 610k tons, up 5% YoY compared to 583k tons in Nov-2022. The same is expected to be up 33% MoM due to seasonal factors. Urea sales in 11M2023 are expected to clock in at 6,014K tons compared to 5,783k tons in 11M2022, up 4% YoY. This is likely to take the closing inventory of Urea to be around 120k tons in Nov-2023 vs 313k tons in Nov-2022.

Among the companies, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is expected to record the highest YoY increase of 130% to 220K tons in Nov-2023, mainly due to low base amid the closure of its base plant for scheduled maintenance and tripping of Enven plant in Nov-2022.

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record sales of 200K tons (-9% YoY), followed by Fatima Group of 125K tons (-3% YoY), and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) of 50K tons (-5% YoY) in Nov-2023.

Total DAP sales during Nov-2023 are anticipated to be around 210k tons, down 11% YoY. However, they are expected to grow by 32% MoM due to the sowing of crops in the Rabi season.

This takes 11M2023 DAP sales to 1,370k tons, up 31% YoY.

Company-wise data suggests FFBL and EFERT are likely to record sales of 80k tons and 55k tons, respectively, followed by FFC’s sales of 24k tons in Nov-2023.

The closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 50k tons in Nov-2023 compared to 562k tons in Nov-2022.

Courtesy – Topline Research