Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to decline by 32% YoY to clock in at 597k tons in Dec-2021 due to the non-availability of Urea amid limited production. This takes the full year 2021uUrea offtakes to 6,341k tons Vs. 6,039k tons in 2020; up 5% YoY. The increase is primarily attributable to higher agriculture activity amid pro-farmer policies of the government.

On a sequential basis, Urea offtakes are expected to increase by 4% MoM due to seasonal factors.

Urea production in Dec-2021 is anticipated to increase by 12% YoY to 557k tons primarily due to higher production by LNG based plants. Urea production for full-year 2021 is likely to remain unchanged at 6,141k tons.

This will take Urea’s closing inventory to around 58k tons in Dec-2021, significantly lower than the buffer inventory of approximately 200k tons.

Total DAP sales are anticipated to clock in at around 115k tons in Dec-2021, down 44% YoY. This takes the full year 2021 DAP sales to 1,879k tons, down 13% YoY. The decline in DAP offtake is primarily due to a significant rise in prices.

FFBL’s DAP production is expected at 76k tons, taking the closing inventory of DAP to around 210k tons.

Courtesy – AHCML Research