Mixed trend in fertilizer sales during Sept in Pakistan

According to provisional fertilizer offtake data for the month of Sep’21, urea offtake climbed up by 20% YoY to 471k tons vis-à-vis 393k tons in SPLY. Offtake of FFC and FFBL (combined) and FATIMA displayed a surge of 17% and 105% YoY, respectively, while sales of EFERT depicted a dip of 3% YoY. However, on a MoM basis, urea offtake plunged by 27%. Urea sales of FFC and FFBL (combined) and EFERT witnessed a fall of 21% and 41% MoM, respectively. Whereas, FATIMA offtake registered a meagre uptick of 1% MoM. On a cumulative basis, urea offtake increased by 8% YoY during 9MCY21, arriving at 4,559k tons. The urea sales volumes of EFERT displayed a jump of 16%, settling at 1,729k tons while FATIMA’s sales augmented by 31% at 586k tons. Whereas, offtake of FFC and FFBL combined showed a drop of 1% YoY, clocking-in at 2,202k tons.

DAP offtake up by 13% MoM in Sep’21

DAP sales reported a decrease of 8% YoY reaching 210k tons during Sep’21. Whereas, DAP offtake MoM climbed up by 13% due to seasonality factor. Meanwhile, during 9MCY21, DAP sales dropped by 13% YoY, arriving at 1,191k tons. On a company specific basis, DAP sales of FFC and FFBL settled at 120k tons in Sep’21, portraying a YoY and MoM jump of 6% and 26%, respectively. With this, FFC and FFBL’s DAP offtake during 9MCY21 clocked-in at 630k tons, down by 9% YoY. Whereas, EFERT’s DAP sales during Sep’21 ascended by 3% YoY and 4x MoM to 52k tons. Hence, EFERT’s DAP offtake for 9MCY21 plummeted by 33% YoY to 198k tons.

Inventory position

The closing inventory of urea with local producers by the end of Sep’21 stands at 116k tons as compared to 187k tons in Aug’21. Furthermore, inventory position of DAP is set at 170k tons by the end of Sep’21.

Courtesy – AHL Research

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