ACPL is scheduled to announce its financial result for 3QFY22 on Apr 21st, 2022, whereby we expect the company to post a profit after tax of PKR 290mn (EPS: PKR 2.11), depicting a YoY dip of 30%.

During the quarter, revenue is expected to project an uptick of 9% YoY primarily owed to higher retention prices which should offset the impact of a 19% decline in offtake to 658k tons. Albeit, given higher coal prices, PKR depreciation and augmented energy tariff, we forecast gross margins in 3QFY22 at 16.6% against 23.1% in SPLY.

We also highlight that margins are set to recoil on a QoQ basis (2QFY22: 20.1%) despite price hike in South and improved offtake (+2%), led by higher coal prices. This should take the 9MFY22 earnings to PKR 1,142mn (EPS: PKR 8.31), up by a robust 19% YoY from PKR 959mn (EPS: PKR 6.98) in SPLY. This will be aided by a 10x YoY jump in other income (dividend income from Iraq subsidiary), while margins should remain lower at 18.5% vs. 23.7% SPLY owed to decline in offtake coupled with higher coal prices.

Courtesy – AHL Research